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Expected Ship Traffic

Peleliu

SOC-4
I am ignorant of most math symbols and formulas beyond basic arithmetic. I am struggling to make sense of the formula for Expected Ship Traffic under the WorldGen Importance Extension section.

S=10^Ix/H

As an example, I was trying to figure traffic for a world (importance -3) in an average traffic region near the frontier. How many ships could be expected to visit?

Thanks in advance for any assistance.
 
in text: Ship Traffic Code is 10 to the power of [quantity] Importance divided by H.

on your calculator (using the one on the computer) you will punch in [1] [0] [^] [( ] the importance [/] whatever the H value is [ )] [=]
 
Yep... handy chart removes the factor H that I cannot remember.
 
The power operator (^) has a higher precedence than division (/), so should be calculated first; it should probably be:

1 0 ^ [Importance] = / [H] =

On my computer calculator the power operator (^) button has the symbol: Skärmavbild 2022-06-01 kl. 07.45.png


So, if Importance = -3 and H = 2:

S = 10 ^ -3 / 2 = 0.001 / 2 = 0.0005



The power operator is how many times we multiply a number, e.g.:

103 = 10^3 = 10 × 10 × 10 = 1000.


The power of a negative number is inverted ( x inverted is 1 / x ):

10-3 = 10^-3 = 1 / 10^3 = 1 / ( 10 × 10 × 10 ) = 1 / 1000 = 0.001.



Just to confuse you: For operator precedence see:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_operations
 
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Thanks for the input. I think ship traffic may need a little boosting for the low importance worlds. Especially those on well-travelled routes. There are many worlds on main routes running -3 or -4 importance between +4 worlds. Do ships just jump into the system to scoop and scoot? After a week in jump I'm sure I would sure like to stretch my legs and grab a drink and some chow in a run-down greasy spoon at the local high or low port.
 
I suspect the major trade goes on large freighters with about J-3, they just bypass fly-over country.

Really low-importance worlds are served by the occasional Free Trader or Subbie, that do stop at every world.
 
Let's say two high population worlds were six parsecs apart.

And there's a low populated system at the halfway point; stopover would have greater traffic than warranted.
 
I suspect the major trade goes on large freighters with about J-3, they just bypass fly-over country.

Really low-importance worlds are served by the occasional Free Trader or Subbie, that do stop at every world.
J3 freighters just don't have the income potential... J2 is just above breakeven - at least under CT, T20, and MGT1. In order to make J3 work under CT and T20, one has to follow the goods and tramp. Routed freighters are a losing proposition.

Now, J3 routed internal supply ships? for certain stable demands, they can be, in the same way that Chinese fruit, rice, and milliet wasn't really worth shipping to Holland or England, but the fine porcelain, silk, jade, spices, and tea... those were worth shipping. Loading freight (other people's cargo) wasn't a thing to do... it just wasn't worth the hassles. Unless they were owed favors by by the line, or were part of the respective Majesties' governments, or otherwise well connected

That's much the situation of J3 and higher shipping - yes, there is some. Probably a good amount. But none of them are going to be willing to carry someone else's goods, because they're routed specifically to maintain supply chains of the ship's owners, and carrying other people's cargo is usually going to be a money losing proposition. Likewise, speculation won't be done by such craft - they have their ready at max capacity load arriving at the docks on the day the ship is due to dock - the odds are good that the high port is where most of it happens, because the cargo can be warehoused easily,
 
J3 freighters just don't have the income potential... J2 is just above breakeven - at least under CT, T20, and MGT1. In order to make J3 work under CT and T20, one has to follow the goods and tramp. Routed freighters are a losing proposition.

Now, J3 routed internal supply ships? ...
I agree that at kCr 1 per jump J-3 ships are not profitable (except with Z-drive magic).

But the cheapest way to transport cargo long distances in Traveller are with large J-3 or J-4 freighters. I would assume Megacorps on the major trade routes does not have the same freight rates as Free Traders on marginal trade routes.


Profitable J-3 freighter in CT using Z-drive magic:
If you can fill it, it makes MCr 0.8 per jump.
Code:
MT-B6344S2-000000-00000-0        MCr 639       2 800 Dton    Ag=4
MT-D6333S2-000000-00000-0        MCr 639       4 000 Dton
bearing                                           Crew=22
batteries                                           TL=15
           Cargo=2336 Fuel=40 EP=112 Agility=2 DropT=1200

Single Occupancy                                  2 336       799
                                     USP    #      Dton      Cost
Hull, Streamlined   Custom             B          2 800        
Configuration       Flattened Sphe     6                      224
Scoops              Streamlined                                 3
                                                               
Drop Tanks          1 200 Dton                                  1
Total tonnage       4 000 Dton                                  
                                                               
Jump Drive          Z                  3    1       125       240
Manoeuvre D         Z                  3    1        47        96
Power Plant         Z                  3    1        73       192
Fuel, #J, #weeks    J-3, 4 weeks            3        40        
Purifier                                    1        19         0
                                                               
Bridge                                      1        56        14
Computer            m/2bis             S    1         2        18
                                                               
Staterooms                                 22        88        11
                                                               
Cargo                                             2 336        
                                                               
Empty hardpoint                            14        14        
                                                               
Nominal Cost        MCr 799,20           Sum:     2 336       799
Class Cost          MCr 167,83          Valid        ≥0        ≥0
Ship Cost           MCr 639,36                                  
                                                               
                                                               
Crew &               High     0        Crew          Bridge    10
Passengers            Mid     0          22       Engineers     3
                      Low     0                     Gunners     0
                 Extra SR     0      Frozen         Service     9
               # Frozen W     0           0          Flight     0
                  Marines     0                     Marines     0
                                                               
                                                               
Estimated Economy of Ship     Standard                                    
       Ship price     Down Payment         Mortgage       Avg Filled
       MCr 639,36      kCr 127 872        kCr 2 664             100%
                                                               
Expenses per jump                       Revenue                
Bank              Cr 1 278 720          High         Cr         0
Fuel              Cr   124 000          Middle       Cr         0
Life Support      Cr    44 000          Low          Cr         0
Salaries          Cr    42 720          Cargo        Cr 2 335 000
Maintenance       Cr    25 574                                  
Berthing          Cr     2 800                                  
                                                               
Summa            kCr     1 518                      kCr     2 335
                                                               
     Income potential per jump     kCr 817                  
  Yearly yield on down payment     16,0%
 
If we can jump a bit more often, e.g. on a scheduled route, say 35 times per year (about every ten days), we can even make a ship that is profitable at standard rates over J-4:
Code:
MT-A646642-000000-00000-0        MCr 579       1 800 Dton    Ag=5
MT-C644442-000000-00000-0        MCr 579       3 000 Dton
bearing                                           Crew=19
batteries                                           TL=15
           Cargo=1351 Fuel=60 EP=108 Agility=3 DropT=1200

Single Occupancy                                  1 351       724
                                     USP    #      Dton      Cost
Hull, Streamlined   Custom             A          1 800         
Configuration       Flattened Sphe     6                      144
Scoops              Streamlined                                 2
                                                                
Drop Tanks          1 200 Dton                                  1
Total tonnage       3 000 Dton                                   
                                                                
Jump Drive          Z                  4    1       125       240
Manoeuvre D         Z                  4    1        47        96
Power Plant         Z                  4    1        73       192
Fuel, #J, #weeks    J-4, 4 weeks            4        60         
Purifier                                    1        19         0
                                                                
Bridge                                      1        36         9
Computer            m/4                4    1         4        30
                                                                
Staterooms                                 19        76        10
                                                                
Cargo                                             1 351         
                                                                
Empty hardpoint                             9         9         
                                                                
Nominal Cost        MCr 723,70           Sum:     1 351       724
Class Cost          MCr 151,98          Valid        ≥0        ≥0
Ship Cost           MCr 578,96                                   
                                                                
                                                                
Crew &               High     0        Crew          Bridge    10
Passengers            Mid     0          19       Engineers     3
                      Low     0                     Gunners     0
                 Extra SR     0      Frozen         Service     6
               # Frozen W     0           0          Flight     0
                  Marines     0                     Marines     0
                                                                
                                                                
Estimated Economy of Ship     Standard                                     
       Ship price     Down Payment         Mortgage       Avg Filled
       MCr 578,96      kCr 115 792        kCr 2 412             100%
                                                                
Expenses per jump                       Revenue                 
Bank                Cr 827 086          High         Cr         0
Fuel                Cr 126 000          Middle       Cr         0
Life Support        Cr  38 000          Low          Cr         0
Salaries            Cr  27 429          Cargo        Cr 1 350 000
Maintenance         Cr  16 542                                   
Berthing            Cr   1 800                                   
                                                                
Summa              kCr   1 037                      kCr     1 350
                                                                
     Income potential per jump     kCr 313                   
  Yearly yield on down payment      6,8%

Z-drives are powerful magic!
 
J3 freighters just don't have the income potential... J2 is just above breakeven - at least under CT, T20, and MGT1. In order to make J3 work under CT and T20, one has to follow the goods and tramp. Routed freighters are a losing proposition.
This has been my experience with the phenomenon as well.
If you're going all internal (no external) cargo capacity, a 400 ton starship with standard drives can just barely break even shipping 3rd party cargoes while under subsidy. My Five Sisters Clipper can just manage it with barely any profit margin to spare under subsidy at J4. If you allow external cargo loading (which the design is explicitly meant to do) then a paid off ship can easily make a profit shipping 3rd party cargoes at J2 ... and under bank financing (which is a LOT more expensive) can make a profit shipping 3rd party cargoes at J1 (more powerful drives than the code: 1 minimum used by Free Traders get EXPENSIVE in a hurry! :eek:).

However, if you're in the tramp speculator market that whole 3rd party cargo shipping @ Cr1000 per ton quickly goes out the window as your main revenue source, turning it into "filler" when your hold doesn't otherwise fill up all the way. When you're wheeling and dealing in speculative cargoes, having a "just enough" cargo capacity and a high jump number makes a lot more economic sense, because all you need to do is buy low (duh) on speculative cargoes and then look around for what would be a presumably high demand market for that specific cargo so as to sell high (duh) and make a profit on the arbitrage. Being able to jump 3-4 parsecs in a week (or even 6-8 parsecs in 2 weeks) dramatically increases your options in determining where to go with your speculative cargo in order to command higher prices for it (on average) than what you bought it for at a higher rate of turnover (-DMs to buy, +DMs to sell, rapid transport).

The result from that design experiment in external load capacity was that you wound up with a starship that could "flex" between roles as a high jump/low capacity tramp speculator and being a low jump/high capacity bulk container transport depending on which way the tramp trade winds were blowing. The only real difference was the amount of external load to be transported. Speculators would want to have as wide a variety of trade code destinations "within range" (and higher jump numbers increases that range) so as to be able to wheel and deal profitably in a kind of "stacked deck" arrangement due to the high drive performance their starship is capable of ... without exceeding the regional tech level support available to them (so you don't have to "go far" for maintenance and repairs).

I'm currently finalizing additional research into this realm of "small ship, lots of external container capacity" by bumping the hull size up from 400 tons into the 500-600 range (functionally 401-600 equals 600 tons under LBB2.81 for standard drives) to see if the proof of concept executed in my Five Sisters Clipper scales up advantageously from 400 to 600(-ish) tons for the starship. Thus far, all signs point to the answer being YES owing to the fact that a +40% increase in hull size (and cost) is yielding a +100% increase in internal cargo capacity and a +140% increase in external cargo capacity at the expense of needing to advance from TL=10 to TL=12 (a relatively modest increase). The downside to the scaled up design is that in order to be profitable shipping 3rd party cargoes, there needs to be A LOT of cargo to move in order to break even. However an upside is that by doubling the internal cargo capacity (and enabling even limited external cargo capacity at J4!) the larger upscale is even more advantageously positioned to exploit arbitrage opportunities in speculative cargo by connecting far flung markets to each other. However, the upside is that the larger ship class can be chartered(!), potentially on a long term basis (like a whole year), for 3rd parties to fill the ship's transport capacity and still turn a profit on short range/high cargo volume transport services ... meaning that if an operator "falls on hard times" they at least have the option to essentially contract their transport services to a 3rd party and start making profits again and rebound on their balance sheets back towards being in the black. The biggest challenge would be keeping enough cash reserves available for speculative cargo trading in order to break into wheeling and dealing so as to make it big (and presumably cash out at some point).

However, you don't get that "flexible" option of operations without any external load capacity.

Pretty much all of the LBB2.81 commercial ships feature 1G maneuver drives ... meaning they effectively have no external loading capacity (add tonnage outside the hull and their maneuver drive code turns into "nyuh uh" according to how the RAW works). Starships built to tow external loads will ideally want to have jump, maneuver and power plant drive output numbers that all match in the 2+ range ... which the Scout/Courier (ironically) manages to do unintentionally. So a Scout/Courier could potentially transport up to 100 tons externally at J1/M1 (standard A drives at 200 tons yield code: 1 performance), although the ship would need to be modified (slightly) to enable this. I use the small craft berthing cost rule from LBB5.80 to account for this (Cr2000 per ton of capacity needed) ... so adding 100 tons of external load "towing" capacity at J1/M1 to a Scout/Courier would cost MCr0.2 (bargain really...) ... and the ship becomes unstreamlined while encumbered with an external load.

With that approach, you can basically turn a Scout/Courier into a "poor man's Free Trader" (kinda sorta) and have a larger cargo (but smaller passenger) capacity than an actual 200 ton Free Trader (that also uses all standard A drives too). However, without any external load, the Scout/Courier remains a J2/M2 starship ... while the Free Trader without any internal load remains a J1/M1 starship ... so there are some interesting edge cases that this approach to things makes possible. You also wind up with a much more diverse Traveller universe of starships, but that's just a side benefit.

Hope you enjoyed the Wall Of Text™ if you actually read this far. 😉
 
If you take a look at how the commercial lines run transport that have to make small profits they do it by having alternate crews...Ship arrives, crew departs, 2nd crew arrives, ship moves off. Layover 1-2 days max - with some ships turning around in hours or (for aircraft) minutes.

The UK moves about 1 TEU container per person per year. That's 60 million containers. OK so most of those move between points inside the country by road or rail - but add grav transport and more would fly. Similarly, sea transport is use for some internal transport but mostly that is international. In future, that is the equivalent of interplanetary or interstellar freight. That is a bit under 20,000 TEU movements a day.

1 TEU is approximately the equivalent of a 5dTon container in Traveller. We are somewhere about TL8-TL9. How that volume changes by TL over 9 is hard to predict.
 
If you take a look at how the commercial lines run transport that have to make small profits they do it by having alternate crews...Ship arrives, crew departs, 2nd crew arrives, ship moves off. Layover 1-2 days max - with some ships turning around in hours or (for aircraft) minutes.
Traveller ship crews probably stay with the ship rather than swapping out at terminals. Aircraft crew swaps are because you aren't living on the plane; in Traveller, the standard-size living quarters are viable indefinitely.

I'd suppose if you were running the whole crew in double-occupancy, you might want to swap them out after each Jump. Maybe every other one?
 
For a Free Trader, yes, sure.

For a MegaCorp freighter that jumps as many times a year as possible, I would guess not. Imagine them like oil rig workers, two weeks on, two weeks off? I.e. jump out, quick reload, jump back, switch crew, rinse and repeat?
 
The only thing big that's running during transition is the power plant.

That's the engineer(s); life support could be on automatic.
 
If you take a look at how the commercial lines run transport that have to make small profits they do it by having alternate crews...Ship arrives, crew departs, 2nd crew arrives, ship moves off. Layover 1-2 days max - with some ships turning around in hours or (for aircraft) minutes.
In a Traveller context, you can only pull that stunt off if you're working with a "standard" ship design operating under what amounts to a long term charter. You're also going to need what amounts to a "conveyor belt" of ships running a set route in order to pull off this stunt with multiple crews. Oh and jump durations vary from 150-175 hours ... so ... arrival times can't be pre-calculated down to the minute for unloading/loading and turnaround logistics pre-scheduling.

Other people on the destination worlds have to "scare up" cargo and passengers to fill the manifests, so the starship can have an absurdly brief turnaround time (like 1-2 days berthed at the starport) for refueling and maintenance checks before accelerating outbound to a jump point. Arrivals needs to be "frequent enough" for the planetside operation managing the local business end to be able to stage cargo to the starport and send out notifications to passengers that their ship has arrived, please present yourself at customs for boarding within the next 24 hours.

In other words, you can pull off that stunt with a fleet of ships and a LOT of personnel (ships, ground crew, booking agents, the lot) when running set routes under contract ... but there's absolutely no way in nadir you're going to be able to run such an operation as a solo tramp merchant who doesn't know where you're going next until you find out what speculative cargo is on offer this week and what tramp cargoes are pending for transport to different places.

The "big boy" megacorps can probably manage such an operation (and very likely do on the major routes) ... but the smaller (read, ACS) operators won't be able to do that without growing themselves into an entire fleet of ships standardized on a particular starship class.
 
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