Fleet sizes

[McPerth]

It includes fighters. Remember, the French have 60-70 military starships, the British 40-50, the Germans and Americans in the mid-30's each and that's it for substancial fleets. Japan have six military ships, and they're French built and replaced a French squadron at Joi and so can be viewed as extensions of the MSIF. The same for Ukraine with 13 obsolete ex-French ships. There are probably not much more than 200 military starships in human space, with the rest being starfighters.

While I accept starships in 2300AD environ are quite rare, I guess there are some more than you tell here. I guess your main source is Invasion Sourcebook's military Situation in pages 6 and 7.

To give an example, according to your post it seems all the Japanese fleet is in Joi, while I'd expect them to have some more military ships along the Chinese arm, as there are not too friendly colonies there.

Same can be said about other Nations, as I'm quite sure there are some more ships in Tirane, not told about in Invasion Sourcebook, and Germany has some other colonies where I'd expect to have some fleet presence (I was surprised to see no reference about Neubayern in IS, as it is told in Colonial Atlas to be a major shipbuilding place for Gremany), or about Australia, whose colonial effort is in the American Arm.

And also I'd bet there are more US ships along the American Arm, aside from the 33 (fighters excluded) listed in IS . It's said In the Referee's Manual that they have among 10 and 20 Kenedy class, and IS talks about one in Eta Bootis, one in Vogelheim and 9 CGs (unknown class) at Earth, for a total of 11. Do you really believe they have none along their other colonies (and/or their extra-solar state)?

I'd also expect some nations not mentioned in Invasion Sourcebook to have some military Fleet (Argentina, Azania, Brasil, Canada, Canton, Manchuria, Mexico, Texas) in their respective arms. Argentina's aggresive policy makes me be quite sure they should have some military fleet, and Manchuria is told in page 49 of the same IS to have activated the base in Grosshiddenhafen while the Central Asian War, so they must have the ressources to do it, just to give you two examples.

 

[BMonnery]

While I accept starships in 2300AD environ are quite rare, I guess there are some more tan you tell here. I guess your main source is Invasion Sourcebook's military Situation in pages 6 and 7.

To give an example, according to your post it seems all the Japanese fleet is in Joi, while I'd expect them to have some more military ships along the Chinese arm, as there are not too friendly colonies there.

E/CS say the force at JOI is THE fleet:

"Today, the nation's military forces include a small fleet of starships which are currently deployed in the French Arm in order to protect Japan's colonies against the invading Kafers. This force has already seen action against the Kafers at Kimanjano and 61 Ursae Majoris. While the former action resulted in serious damage to the Japanese fleet, the latter was a combined effort with German forces resulting in the destruction of a Kafer Delta-class battleship. As a move to better protect her colonies, Japan has mobilized her imperial marines and has begun sending them, along with their sophisticated hardware, to the threatened worlds."

Same can be said about other Nations, as I'm quite sure there are some more ships in Tirane, not told about in Invasion Sourcebook, and Germany has some other colonies where I'd expect to have some fleet presence (I was surprised to see no reference about Neubayern in IS, as it is told in Colonial Atlas to be a major shipbuilding place for Gremany), or about Australia, whose colonial effort is in the American Arm.

There are no German colonies outside the French Arm, and Invasion is explicit that there were no warships between QAS and Sol, hence the "leakers" which made it to Earth. The implication of that is that since the fighters that reached Earth never had their baseship found it's still there, lurking in the solar system somewhere (/adventure hook).

And also I'd bet there are more US ships along the American Arm, aside from the 33 (fighters excluded) listed in IE . It's said In the Referee's Manual that they have among 10 and 20 Kenedy class, and IE talks about one in Eta Bootis, one in Vogelheim and 9 CGs (unknown class) at Earth, for a total of 11. Do you really believe they have none along their other colonies (and/or their extra-solar state)?

10 Kennedys. The damn things are built at Mars in plain sight. No amount of changing the nameplates creates additional ships.

Of the 9 surviving Kennedys, 1 is unaccounted for, assuming USS Reno (an antiquated Providence class light cruiser) remains flag at Earth.

In fact the ASF is the most defined force in canon, consisting of:

1 BBL (Columbia, with two more, Intrepid and Hornet, under construction)
9 CGL (Kennedy class, Kennedy, Jefferson, Reagan, Roosevelt and Kostek named in canon, plus Sanchez, destroyed at Arcturus)
3 CL (Providence class, Reno (flag, Earth Fleet), Scranton (flag, King Fleet) and Bangor (flag, Ellis Fleet)
9 DD ("close escort", Cayuga class, 3 under construction or planned)
20 FF (Hampton class)

The size of the US merchant marine is known, 120 ships, whilst the civilian colonial agency, AECA, has 29 colonial transports and 5 couriers.

I'd also expect some nations not mentioned in Invasion Sourcebook to have some military Fleet (Argentina, Azania, Brasil, Canada, Canton, Manchuria, Mexico, Texas) in their respective arms. Argentina's aggresive policy makes me be quite sure they should have some military fleet, and Manchuria is told in page 49 of the same IS to have activated the base in Grosshiddenhafen while the Central Asian War, so they must have the ressources to do it, just to give you two examples.

We know the French Arm is far more militarised than the American and Chinese Arms due to lingering tensions between France and Germany and the Kafer threat (intro to SoFA).

I'm sure Argentina etc. have military fleets, but are they necessarily large ones? The Europeans have massive offworld populations and trade interests. The same isn't true for most other nations.

If I may post something I wrote:

 

[BMonnery]

Starship fleets, some thoughts
Now, we've a bit hamstrung when deciding the strength of our fleets of combat starships by the numbers in "Invasion", and also the reference in "Ships of the French Arm" (SotFA) about the French Arm being far more militarised than the others due to the standoff between Germany and the Conservative Powers (France, Japan, maybe Britain) and the ongoing Kafer threat which pulled very significant fleet elements onto the arm to defend themselves against an alien invasion (which they did in Invasion, after a fashion).


Combat starships aren't in the same price bracket as a modern wet navy frigate, and indeed prices in 2300AD are deceiving. I'll expand on this.


2300AD gives us three sets of data. The first is a general conversion of cost of goods vs the 1980's USD (then $3 = Lv1, now on the order of $6 = Lv1). It also gave wages, and the very high end skilled workers are earning on the order of Lv10,000 per annum. Finally E/CS (Earth/Cybertech Sourcebook) says employment levels are very low, as most jobs are automated. When we sum these together national incomes are surprisingly low, typically on the order of MLv100,000's. a MLv100 frigate/destroyer is an investment on the level of a Nimitz class Supercarrier to the US. Only truly rich nations can afford the things at all, and then not many.


This isn't that surprising. The primary long range weapons used are miniature automated starships with nuclear warheads. Consider this quote from the 2300AD core rules:



Missiles and Drones are, of course, miniature stutterwarp ships in their own right. As such they are extremely expensive pieces of equipment.
The two tend to be used in conjunction with one another in combat. A vessel will send out drones to detect the enemy at a distance so that it can send its missiles to attack without having to approach the enemy itself.
This means that drones are often targeted during combat. Sometimes this is because they are mistaken for missiles, but more often the enemy simply wants to deprive the missile ship of the information the drones transmit, forcing the ship to close distance itself.
When considering the fact that every time a detonation missile explodes or a regular missile or a drone is destroyed by fire, another small stutterwarp engine is lost, it becomes obvious that such battles are very expensive, even if the main military vessels themselves are never hit.
- Page 78, 2300AD Directors Guide, 2nd edition

This is why nations built non-detonation missile weapons, however the probability of them surviving multiple rounds in close contact with is pretty low since any hit is an automatic disabling hit. Apparently the rules were written with the expectation of armoured missiles. Nothing really stopping armouring of missiles except their low surface area: volume ratio meaning the mass of armour to get reasonable protection is large compared to the missile mass (armour 5 would typically more than double the missile mass and slow it down). Hence the apparent supremacy of detonation missiles.


Possibly one way of stopping this being such a problem would be adding a rule giving a to hit penalty vs fast moving targets. Regular missiles would act as fighters, making fast passes. Anyway, enough digression.


When designing our fleets we have to think about what we want them to do. Arguably there are only two functions we need to worry about, the battle fleet and trade warfare. Planetary defence is very much the province of fighters, minefields (in wartime) and a battle fleet (if available).


The battle fleet is entirely relative. There are no concerns about areas of space to be patrolled or absolute minimum numbers to cover colonies and trade routes. It simply has to be capable of taking on and defeating the enemy fleet. If a nation has no hope of building a battlefleet capable of defeating the projected foe then there is no logic in trying. Why should, say, Argentina spend vast resources building a couple of capital ships (cruisers say in 2300AD terms) for a potential war with Britain when the British have over a dozen such heavy ships and will simply defeat them in no time flat. The resources would be better spent on trade warfare. Even the USA has gone down this route, none of the ships presented in canon (which are pretty exhaustive) are designed for a fleet to fleet encounter. The Kennedy is definitely a high end trade warfare ship. In canon only three nations seem to possess full battlefleets, France, Britain and Germany. The Japanese and Ukrainians have a few capital ships but both are solid French allies, and the ships are French built. This is an example of French burden sharing rather than Japanese or Ukrainian imperialism.


The lack of battlefleets works because of the French Peace. The French say "no-one can drop nuclear warheads on Earth from orbit" and have their battlefleet there to prevent it. Their allies Britain, Bavaria (before the German annexation), Japan* and the Ukraine backed them up in this. Invasion gives 19 heavy capital ships (exc/ German, who whilst being one of the revisionist powers may still contribute here) in Earth space. Even if only a third are in Earth defence orbit at any one time then any starship approaching to deliver a nuke will be smashed, and any ballistic missile launches will be shot down (and conversely they can deliver nukes without challenge should a nation contrive to drop a rock on another). If the French peace broke down then a totally different power dynamic would occur, with the great powers preparing for a massive melee in the area of Earth, but this would push the powers to deploy large numbers of "Sentinels" (nuclear mines) in Earth orbit. Assumidly the conservative powers do the same at Tirane (which stops an Argentine-Brazilian arms race in Tirane orbit).


This means warfare conducted between great powers is restricted to trade warfare. These need more ships, and smaller ones suffice. As far as a colonial planet is concerned if a nation has a single reasonable frigate/ destroyer standing off it then it is blockaded. They can mount self-defense quite cheaply with sentinels, and might be able to drive off a frigate with a group of starfighters, but such vessels are more vulnerable than full starships, and liable to destruction if pulled away from a planet (for example, a frigate could bait patrolling starfighters into Sentinel fields quite easily). Earth is highly dependent on imports from the colonies (4 tons imported for every ton exported), mainly minerals and even foodstuffs and so denying an opponent access to imports is a good war strategy, but blockading Earth is complicated by transshipment (what if colonial produce is shipped to a neutral nation on Earth on neutral shipping?). Thus blockading an enemies colonies and taking their merchantman is probably the main effort between great powers off Earth (unless full blown invasions of each others colonies is possible).


To accomplish this we need large numbers of reasonably sized ships with sufficient armament, protection and endurance (which means having a large cargo bay, "life support" in SC is atmosphere only). This means prettymuch a typical trade warfare ship (either defensive or offensive) needs either a MHD turbine and a really big gastank (and solar arrays) like the small US ships, or a nuke plant (with ~ 50 MW being the high end, at 75 MW a 150 MW fusion plant takes over as more mass and crew efficient, and you've got a different beast). The ultimate expression of the trade warfare type are the "light cruisers" of the Kennedy or Ypres class. It's no coincidence that many smaller colonial nations (like Australia) have a Ypres as their "flagship".


At the very bottom end merchantman may be fitted for their own self defense. Installing combat systems on a starship isn't a huge issue (although the electronics is more problematic). At the high end longhauller merchantmen like the Shenyang is armed would make a pretty darned effective frigate. These ships are shown to be quite common in the scenarios in SC.


Hence, outside of the major battlefleet nations there is no need of big capital ships. Unless critical mass is achieved (which involves challenging the French and allied conservative powers) a big cruiser or battleship is an absolute waste. The leading non-battlefleet power, America, is now building extremely powerful trade warfare raiding ships like the Kennedy. These can overwhelm any smaller cruising ship and (hopefully) outrun heavy units but will come to no good if they accept battle with a heavy unit (as USS Sanchez found out). When designing fleets not detailed in canon (say Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Manchuria etc.) the need to stick to a raiding strategy should be emphasised.




* By canon the Japanese force at Elysia is the bulk of their force. Looked at from another PoV it is essentially a French fleet by the backdoor as a counterweight to Germany in a place where the French can't legitimately deploy forces.

 

[McPerth]

All of them good points.

I must first say I don't have Access to Earth/Cyberpunk sourcebook, so I must trust you about it (and don't have any reason not to, anyway).

I agree in your analysis, but, even if the French arm is the most militarized of all, that does not mean other branches are not.

I don't expect the American arm to be too militarized, as the few powers present on it are mostly in good terms, and, being a dead end, there is no reason to keep there more than a few light units for custoums and anti-piracy duty (at least until Operation Back Door, Challenges 48-52, is conducted).

This does not apply, though. to the Chinese arm, as there are many not so friendly nations there:

The Argentinan/Mexican block, along with the Inca Republic is in unfriendly terms with Brazil, and both have colonies in the arm. The tree Rio de la Plata wars have left bad feelings, and I guess not many people rule out the possibility of a fourth war. So I guess there should be some naval presence in both blocks to look after their interests.

Similar situation is among the Manchus, the Cantonese and the Japanese. The Central Assian war put Manchuria and Japan in unfriendly terms, and the Manchus and Cantonese have been rivals for long time. So I also expect some Naval presence from the three nations to keep their national interests protected.

I'd also expect Texas to have some naval elements, even if for custoums and anti-piracy duty, and because, as the last phrase in Colonial Atlas, page 52 says: (...) the Texans' because they feel military facilities whould always be available when needed. My guess is they think the same about troops (ships in this case).

I don't expect Incas or Arabs to have significant naval force (if any), as they are poor nations for spacefaring ones. Not sure about Canada, who will have at most some light units for custoums and anti-piracy duty.

I agree most of those naval presence will be in form of light ships, as I agree in your analysis of the naval needs of most nations, but are mainly those light whips what are fighting the Kafer ships, that are nearly all in the capital ship category, and keeping them at bay, and the ones that finally win over them in the Battle of Beowulf (the description of the battle in the sidebar in page 52 of the Invasion Sourcebook tells about two CVs, four BBs, 1 BC, 14 CGS and 47 DDs/FFs, so only 7 capital ships, as I understand you put the CGS in he category of heavy non capital ships; against 14 BBs and 10 CGS on the Kafer side).

One of the things that confused me about the Kafer war is that neither the Argentinean/Mexican block nor Brazil contributed to the war effort. I had expected them to send some fleet elements as a matter of prestige, and even to try to "outbid" each other in this race for prestige (and influence).

 

[McPerth]

[m;]Previous posts were moved from the thread communications in 2300.[/m;]

 

[BMonnery]

All of them good points.

I must first say I don't have Access to Earth/Cyberpunk sourcebook, so I must trust you about it (and don't have any reason not to, anyway).

I agree in your analysis, but, even if the French arm is the most militarized of all, that does not mean other branches are not.

I don't expect the American arm to be too militarized, as the few powers present on it are moslty in good terms, and, being a dead end, there is no reason to keep there more than a few light units for custoums and anti-piracy duty (at least until Operation Back Door, Challenges 48-52, is conducted).

Absolutely. By various articles the US keep two "fleets" on the American Arm, each based around an old CL. One based at King and one at Ellis. Hampton's and Cayugas make escort sweeps and probably are the workhorse of shuffling US personnel and minor equipment around.

The opposite extreme seems to be Australia. Lacking warships it was forced to arm an Anjou transport for colonial defence.

This does not apply, though. to the Chinese arm, as there are many not so friendly nations there:

True.

The Argentinan/Mexican block, along with the Inca Republic is in unfriendly terms with Brazil, and both have colonies in the arm. The tree Rio de la Plata wars have left bad feelings, and I guess not many people rule out the possibility of a fourth war. So I guess there should be shome naval presence in both blocks to look after their interests.

How would such a war be fought? One can argue the Battlefleet might be of use when facing each other in an allegory of the early 20th Century Argentina/ Brazil/ Chile arms race that saw these nations acquiring small numbers of modern heavy ships. The proposed use of such a force would be in the core however, contesting control of Earth/Tirane space.

On the arms themselves the important thing to note is Procyon (Brazil's Paulo colony) is downarm from Ormicron Eridani (Argentina-Mexico's Montana colony), and so the Brazilians are immediately cut off from that colony. However, Paulo (and Montana) aren't worth a lot beyond pride. The conflict in the Latin Finger is a sideshow compared to Sol and AC. Both sides may attempt to interdict trade with light forces, but the best way of doing this ultimately is to destroy the orbitals of the other colony, which means both probably would rather fortify heavily (with massive Sentinel fields etc.) rather than invest in mobile forces which need to stay close to their base for fear of "trading Queens".

Similar situation is among the Manchus, the Cantonese and the Japanese. The Central Assian war put Manchuria and Japan in unfriendly terms, and the Manchus and Cantonese have been rivals for long time. So I also expect some Naval presence fro the three nations to keep their national interests protected.

True, but the French are on Japan's side. It's likely the French base a squadron at Beta Hydri, which is nextdoor to Delta Pavonis and these two system constitute the bulk of the population and wealth of the Chinese Arm. Quite possibly the Japanese and French squadrons at Joi/ BH simply swapped.

The Manchus are problematic. In the CAW they were reduced to nuisance raids, and they are heavily dependent upon minerals from offworld, which used to be from the French Empire but the expansion of offworld mining on the Chinese Arm after 2250 changed the power dynamic. The CAW was a Manchu landgrab for mineral rich Siberia. France only intervened when Russia collapsed and the Manchus were threatening Moscow itself (in the second year of the war). Space combat in SC is all raids by a few frigates, then an offensive by France in 2287 that isolates the Chinese colonies which, combined with the Japanese coming in against Manchuria forces Manchuria to negotiate a way out.

I'd also expect Texas to have some naval elements, even if for custoums and anti-piracy duty, and because, as the last phrase in Colonial Atlas, page 52 says: (...) the Texans' because they feel military facilities whould always be available when needed. My guess is they think the same about troops (ships in this case).

By Ranger Texas has no ships, but hires commercially as needed, mainly from Manchuria.

I don't expect Incas or Arabs to have significant naval forcé (if any), as they are poor nations for spacefaring ones. Not sure about Canada, who will have at most some light units for custoums and anti-piracy duty.

The Arabs have a fairly decent Ypres class light cruiser ("frigate") supplied by the French. It would not surprise my if the crew is "ex-French". It seems to be French strategy.

I agree most of those naval presence will be in form of light ships, as I agree in your analysis of the naval needs of most nations, but are mainly those light whips what are fighting the Kafer ships, that are nearly all in the capital ship category, and keeping them at bay, and the ones that finally win over them in the Battle of Beowulf (the description of the battle in the sidebar in page 52 of the Invasion Sourcebook tells about two CVs, four BBs, 1 BC, 14 CGS and 47 DDs/FFs, so only 7 capital ships, as I understand you put the CGS in he category of heavy non capital ships; against 14 BBs and 10 CGS on the Kafer side).

Cruisers are definitely heavy vessels. A 22,000 ton Suffren or 16,000 ton Konstantin is a "battleship". Unlike 20th century wet navies there is no compromise in gun calibre or the like for a "cruiser" - they're simply the main battleship like an 18th century 3rd rate, with "battleships" etc. being the bigger 1st and 2nd rates.

One of the things that confused me about the Kafer war is that neithr the Argeninean/Mexican block nor Brazil contributed to the war effort. I had expected them to send some fleet elements as a matter of prestige, and even to try to "outbid" each other in this race for prestige (and influence).

That assumes they have capability and will. I don't necessarily see it. They ma have simply protected their territory (including Earth) as they have no interest in French imperial pretensions.

 

[McPerth]

First of all, let me warn you once more I have no access to most 2300 matrial. While I played it (in fact T2300) briefly back when it was published, little arrived to Barcelona, and at this time I couldn't afford to buy much of it, and I concentrated on other games.

So, as a late comer to the game, I own Colonial Atlas, Invasión and Kafer sourcebooks, and have had recently access to T2300, but little else.

How would such a war be fought? One can argue the Battlefleet might be of use when facing each other in an allegory of the early 20th Century Argentina/ Brazil/ Chile arms race that saw these nations acquiring small numbers of modern heavy ships. The proposed use of such a force would be in the core however, contesting control of Earth/Tirane space.

On the arms themselves the important thing to note is Procyon (Brazil's Paulo colony) is downarm from Ormicron Eridani (Argentina-Mexico's Montana colony), and so the Brazilians are immediately cut off from that colony. However, Paulo (and Montana) aren't worth a lot beyond pride. The conflict in the Latin Finger is a sideshow compared to Sol and AC. Both sides may attempt to interdict trade with light forces, but the best way of doing this ultimately is to destroy the orbitals of the other colony, which means both probably would rather fortify heavily (with massive Sentinel fields etc.) rather than invest in mobile forces which need to stay close to their base for fear of "trading Queens".

But a war on Sol or Alpha Centauri systems could have interfered on other powers' interests, so had to be more contained.

In any case, AFAIK there are no orbital stations destruction in the wars told in 2300 history. It seems that fear to PR in earth has precluded wars to be fully exported to colonies, where they can be even more devastating than on Earth.

True, but the French are on Japan's side. It's likely the French base a squadron at Beta Hydri, which is nextdoor to Delta Pavonis and these two system constitute the bulk of the population and wealth of the Chinese Arm. Quite possibly the Japanese and French squadrons at Joi/ BH simply swapped.

The Manchus are problematic. In the CAW they were reduced to nuisance raids, and they are heavily dependent upon minerals from offworld, which used to be from the French Empire but the expansion of offworld mining on the Chinese Arm after 2250 changed the power dynamic. The CAW was a Manchu landgrab for mineral rich Siberia. France only intervened when Russia collapsed and the Manchus were threatening Moscow itself (in the second year of the war). Space combat in SC is all raids by a few frigates, then an offensive by France in 2287 that isolates the Chinese colonies which, combined with the Japanese coming in against Manchuria forces Manchuria to negotiate a way out.

And after the war they declined to have a naval force not to antagonize France (what they had already done), or they would have tried to build one just in case?

After all they have the ressources, and, as the dominant power in the Chinese arm, they're likely (IMHO) to be interested in having it to keep this dominance.

And this will (again IMHO) be even more true after the first contact with Kafers and the kafer ocupation of Aurore, as they can not rule out a similar event in their arm, and they will not be willing to depend on outside help should this occur.

Cruisers are definitely heavy vessels. A 22,000 ton Suffren or 16,000 ton Konstantin is a "battleship". Unlike 20th century wet navies there is no compromise in gun calibre or the like for a "cruiser" - they're simply the main battleship like an 18th century 3rd rate, with "battleships" etc. being the bigger 1st and 2nd rates.

Even so, there are some SC scenarios in Invasion Sourcebook where Kafer BB/BC are confronted by frigates. Not sure how balanced they are, but I guess they are if they were published.

That assumes they have capability and will. I don't necessarily see it. They ma have simply protected their territory (including Earth) as they have no interest in French imperial pretensions.

From the moment people on Earth recognized the Kafer goal is the destruction of humaniti as a whole, I guess both blocks will have gone into a grab for prestige by sending (or at least offreing) whatever forces they thought they can afford (or they need to outbid the other), even if for support roles (as Argentina did in the war against Iraq in 1991).

 

[epicenter00]

There's actually a serious problem in 2300AD with the number of warships, and honestly the number of ships in general.

1) One is the infamous "Tantalum Question" thing in the game. Tantalum isn't that rare on Earth. I mean, it's rare but it's not that rare. So why are ships, let alone warships, so rare? Tantalum on Earth is so rare that people fight wars over it. The rarity is supposed to explain the lack of ships in the universe. But it's not that rare. I mean we make all kinds of stuff using Tantalum today. If it was that rare, would they make detonation missiles from it? Colin in MgT2300 tries to explain it that it's an isotope of Tantalum, but it still doesn't quite make much sense. I think there should be more ships or there has to be some other hold-up that keeps ships from being really common.

2) Another "laugh out loud" bad breaking of canon is in the Invasion sourcebook itself. There's all kinds of hints that BMonnery's fleet strengths are generally considered accurate as printed. So you have like Japan with like six ships or something total in their space fleet. Then you have Kimanjano with the French Foreign Legion with 50 fighters there.

Say what? 50?!

Yes, 50 fighters. The Star Cruiser scenario suggests they're Martels. These things are like armor 10 (yes 10) monsters. 50 of those monsters could probably fend off the Kafers by themselves, no matter how many ships the Kafers send. But more seriously, even if that's the entirety of the Foreign Legion's fighter strength (it somehow seems unlikely) ... 50 fighters in 2300 could pretty much take the fleets of any other power listed in the game without even calling in the rest of the French fleet.

To me, that the French can just base 50 Martels in Kimanjano suggests that even if the French the biggest power in 2300, the other powers have to have pretty large fleets, especially the Manchus.

is the destruction of humaniti as a whole.

Humanity.

 

[McPerth]

Humanity.

Sorry. In fact, I learned more English by playing Traveller than to attending clasees, and I guess I'm too used to Traveller vocabulary, where (MT:IE page 27) it's spelled humainti (it seems I forgot the note saying former spelling humanity) .

In any case, thank you for helping me fixing my English.

 

[BMonnery]

There's actually a serious problem in 2300AD with the number of warships, and honestly the number of ships in general.

1) One is the infamous "Tantalum Question" thing in the game. Tantalum isn't that rare on Earth. I mean, it's rare but it's not that rare. So why are ships, let alone warships, so rare? Tantalum on Earth is so rare that people fight wars over it. The rarity is supposed to explain the lack of ships in the universe. But it's not that rare. I mean we make all kinds of stuff using Tantalum today. If it was that rare, would they make detonation missiles from it? Colin in MgT2300 tries to explain it that it's an isotope of Tantalum, but it still doesn't quite make much sense. I think there should be more ships or there has to be some other hold-up that keeps ships from being really common.

2) Another "laugh out loud" bad breaking of canon is in the Invasion sourcebook itself. There's all kinds of hints that BMonnery's fleet strengths are generally considered accurate as printed. So you have like Japan with like six ships or something total in their space fleet. Then you have Kimanjano with the French Foreign Legion with 50 fighters there.

Say what? 50?!

Yes, 50 fighters. The Star Cruiser scenario suggests they're Martels. These things are like armor 10 (yes 10) monsters. 50 of those monsters could probably fend off the Kafers by themselves, no matter how many ships the Kafers send. But more seriously, even if that's the entirety of the Foreign Legion's fighter strength (it somehow seems unlikely) ... 50 fighters in 2300 could pretty much take the fleets of any other power listed in the game without even calling in the rest of the French fleet.

To me, that the French can just base 50 Martels in Kimanjano suggests that even if the French the biggest power in 2300, the other powers have to have pretty large fleets, especially the Manchus.

The rarity of tantalum and the lack of massive behemoths of war are self-consistent. Ta-180m is the rarest naturally occurring isotope in the universe*, and has IRL physical properties that can explain some stutterwarp phenomena.

All known and projected stocks of Ta-180m are about 4,200 tons (including extremely marginal deposits), and right now enriched Ta (about 5% 180m, 95% 181) goes for thousands of dollars a gram. More was discovered but only 74 "points" of Ta was found on Earth which scales at about 7,400 tons.

Hence the decision to use genetically engineered "slave labour" on King to obtain tantalum.

Manchuria had 2 points of stardrive tantalum on Earth and fought the Central Asian War to get the last unexploited Ta on the planet (which they didn't, France probably got the lions share). They have a small deposit found on Chenghu.

Calculations and canonical writings show Manchuria can't even provide the normal transport needs of her colonies, let alone massive starfleets.

Japan subsists entirely on the tantalum they cut a deal with Mozambique for two centuries ago and the small lode exploited on Tirane. They are mainly recycling old material and getting whatever they can on the open market, which in practice means Ta from King sold b the American-Australian company that exploits King with artificially grown slave labour.


* I proposed the idea it was Ta-180m ca. 1998-9 which Colin incorporated later.

 

[LemnOc]

Ta-180m is the rarest naturally occurring isotope in the universe

Argues strongly against Traveller-style riffraff knocking around known space in banged up space trucks.

My sense is ships should be rare without being inconceivably rare. Balance.

 

[McPerth]

Ta-180m is the rarest naturally occurring isotope in the universe

(emphasis is mine)

Excuse me if the question is dumb, but when you say naturally occurring, does it mean it can be produced?

And if so, how expensive would it be to produce it from other isotopes of Tantalum (I guess it will be produced from them).

 

[rancke]

The rarity of tantalum and the lack of massive behemoths of war are self-consistent. Ta-180m is the rarest naturally occurring isotope in the universe*, and has IRL physical properties that can explain some stutterwarp phenomena.

Does it really matter? Presumably the original designers didn't decide to base the stutterwarp drive on Ta-180m and then work out how many ships that would mean. Rather, they decided how many ships they wanted around and came up with the rubber physics to make it so. If it hadn't been one piece of handwavium it would have been another.

So if anyone wants to change the 2300 setting to one where rag-tag bands of adventurers can own their own ship, they'll have to change something in the underlying assumptions anyway. Whether that is to change the bottleneck isotope to something less rare or to make some other change, the actual real world rarity of Ta-180m becomes totally irrelevant.


Hans

 

[epicenter00]

The rarity of tantalum and the lack of massive behemoths of war are self-consistent. Ta-180m is the rarest naturally occurring isotope in the universe*, and has IRL physical properties that can explain some stutterwarp phenomena.

Yeah, that part makes sense. I suppose the part I should have explained is that something (to me) doesn't jive between Tantalum's rarity and the uses it is put to.

You have most nations in the world who are basically unable to build starships because of the rarity of Tantalum. If nations like Manchuria (who is a reasonably accepted nation, and not some pariah nation and seems pretty powerful to boot, at least powerful enough to actually fight France as opposed to just back down) can't build stutterwarp ships, Japan (and presumably any other nation that doesn't have Tantalum on its own) has to scrounge.

Then there's some things I naturally find a bit questionable like the use of detonation missiles, those 50 Foreign Legion fighters, and various commercial hulls being built as shown in Ships of the French Arm. The X-2296 by Hyde appears to be a fighter intended for sale. The thing I've always wondered about is that Tantalum appears to be the focus of a great deal of exclusionary actions and wars designed to secure it. But it appears to be more like petroleum today, instead of weapons-grade plutonium. People do make viable commercial vessels from Tantalum; groups interested in getting a hold of the stuff would seem to be able to get a hold of it.

It seems that there should be more ships.

 

[BMonnery]

Does it really matter? Presumably the original designers didn't decide to base the stutterwarp drive on Ta-180m and then work out how many ships that would mean. Rather, they decided how many ships they wanted around and came up with the rubber physics to make it so. If it hadn't been one piece of handwavium it would have been another.

They choose Ta for the distribution pattern of reserves. Happy coincidence they picked the only element with a stable high spin nuclear isomer.

So if anyone wants to change the 2300 setting to one where rag-tag bands of adventurers can own their own ship, they'll have to change something in the underlying assumptions anyway. Whether that is to change the bottleneck isotope to something less rare or to make some other change, the actual real world rarity of Ta-180m becomes totally irrelevant.

Consider this old post of mine from etranger:

For a while I've been considering the worth of a starship.

A typical 25,000 m3 transport can (potentially) turn over MLv40 per year
(assuming 333 vly moved per year @ Lv5 per m3/vly, with the ship being serviced
twice a year for 2 weeks at crew change).

The costs will be:
Crew: MLv0.6
Fuel: MLv1.5
Power plant maintenance: MLv4.5
Other systems maintenance: MLv0.62
Life support: MLv2.16
Total: MLv9.38 (round to MLv10 to add various charges etc.)

The ship thus has a potential profit of MLv30 per year, and likely does over
MLv20.

At MLv30 profit per year if the ship were a unitary corporation and the price to
earnings ratio was around 10 (i.e. typical, not in a bubble or depression) then
the starship would have shares totalling MLv2-300 issued on them. Assuming only
100 shares were issued then they'd cost MLv2-3 each and pay a dividend of
MLv0.2-0.3 per year. The cost could easily be double that.

Now, lets have a look at the construction cost. For a ship of this type the
construction cost is ca. MLv6. The actual construction cost of a starship is
equal to only 1-2% of the value when floated. This would make constructing and
operating a transport starship probably the most profitable business ever.

Now, what drives prices up this high? The rarity of starships. If there was no
restrictions on building them then transport prices would tend towards cost only
with profits minimised to gain competitiveness.

As an analogy I may use the housing market. A typical British 3 bedroom house
costs a bit less than £50,000 to build at the moment, yet in London would trade
at over £500,000. At a tenfold return it's difficult to see why more houses
aren't built, but of course the issue is the availability of land. It is this
very lack of a vital resource that drives house prices up.

It's the same with starships. The lack of tantalum is likely the limiting
factor. NAM deals with cost, not value.

Now this brings me to my next point. Assuming the ship is divided into 100
shares, who owns them?

The original owner (almost certainly a government) takes the profit of MLv20-30
per year, but maybe needs a quick cash injection and so decides to sell off 10%
of the shares, and gets an immediate income of MLv30 or so, at a long term loss.
They can do this quite a lot and as long as they maintain a controlling interest
(51%) it's still "their ship". Thus you probably have situations where a ship if
60% (say) owned by (say) the French government, but the remaining 40% are
circulating shares and simply return a profit.

Now, this is of course risky. Might we not have investors instead of putting
large lumps of money in one ship preferring to spread out their investment
amongst many ships. Thus we have the idea of having a portfolio of starships in
which a person or company has a small number of shares in many ships.

Now, the overall value of this market is going to be huge. Quick calculations
show that even in the restricted starship 2300AD the starship market is going to
be at least a Trillion Lv (million million). This is probably larger than the
GDP of America.

Now depending on assumptions the nation willing to sell their tantalum
(Australia) can make a lot of money, several billion livre a year.

At the other end, a nation or corporation which wants to acquire a starship via
the market is going to pay through the nose. Making a hostile takeover bid by
trying to buy up all the available shares (assuming the majority shareholder has
less than 51%) will push prices right up.

Now, I'd like to compare this with the position of western industry in the
1970's etc. when GDW wrote 2300. The great captains of industry had over the
years become minority shareholders in their own companies. The corporate raiders
(led by Jim Slater) noticed this and started mounting hostile takeovers and
asset stripping the companies they took over. I'm going to suggest that perhaps
a simialr thing happened in 2300. Most nations that had starships slowly sold
off shares in their national fleets over the years until they had minority
shares and then had their fleets effectively bought out by corporations willing
to make hostile takeovers.

Furthermore, perhaps one of the more interesting trades would be to make a
hostile takeover of a starship in order to gain the drive. Then strip the ship
and use the drive/ tantalum to build a new ship that can be floated later for a
profit.

This, I'd surmise could be a mechanism for the transfer of starships into
corporate hands.

 

[Peter Schutze]

"Now, this is of course risky. Might we not have investors instead of putting large lumps of money in one ship preferring to spread out their investment amongst many ships. Thus we have the idea of having a portfolio of starships in which a person or company has a small number of shares in many ships"

Since corporations in 2300 seem exist in their current (2013) form, most shares are probably issued by transport lines not for individual ships. Some smaller lines might have as their main asset one small ship but you would be buying into the 'line' including the offices along the route etc not the ship directly.

Also in 2013 size counts a lot. A mid sized frieght line on a stock exchange is valued at a much higher multiple of earnings (10+) than a small business not on an exchange (typically 4-7) while large ones (airlines, fedex) are valued even higher (15+). I'd give more examples but im not sure of american ones.

 

[Peter Schutze]

Tantalum scarcity

One big problem with the whole scarcity idea is that canon just doesn't seem to match economics.

If tantalum was truly scarce, non urgent transports would be orders of magnitude slower than in Ships of the French Arm simply for cost reasons unless there is efficiency restrictions thats not apparent in NAM etc .... restrictions that are apparent in present day ships and aircraft

If you are going to be saving Mlv on the drive for a lower efficiency rating vessel, its going to take a decent part of the drive's useful life to make up those savings in crew salaries saved per delivery.

For passenger services the effects of life support costs would provide a floor to the speed vs cost.

 

[BMonnery]

Space transport economics are dominated by the cost of interface travel. If a starship officer on Lv10,000 pa was to buy passage from the surface of Earth to the surface of Tirane the cost is well over 6 months total income, but the bulk of that is ascending the gravity well.

On bulk goods, take a Metal as an example of a big carrier. If loaded to sg =3 (i.e. ores, grains etc.) speed is warp 0.42 and a typical hop to the next system takes about 2 weeks. If loaded with refined metals (as she was historically) speed is closer to 0.2 (depending on the metal) and it takes her 4 weeks per system (which is the limit of her fuel). Her slow journey is justified by over a million tons of refined metal ingots if stacked to the rafters.

A metal loaded Anjou goes about we 0.3 (but simply doesn't have the fuel to jump systems even at a moderate load - well done GDW). Other deep loaded (metal ingot) vessels go about (1 DP):

Commercant: 0.5
Krupp: 0.3
Shenyang: 1.0
Maiduguri: 0.7
Hudson: 0.3
Guiana: 0.3
BC-4: 0.3

So the big bulk carriers that carry metals back to Earth are going pretty darned slowly. Not quite approaching the floor were stutterwarp ceases to work (0.15) but in some cases getting pretty darned close.

On the subject of ores vs metals, it's economic stupidity to lift ores from a gravity well. he slightest modicum of sense shows it's far better to smelt on the ground then lift to orbit and avoid 90%+ of the lifted mass being useless. The same may not be true of deep space rock mining. If you can't smelt insystem the cheapness of interstellar transit vs climbing the gravity well may see ores moved instead of refined metals, but probably only to the nearest smelter in orbit around a developed colony world.

Coming back to the nature of trade, Earth is a massive importer of metals and foodstuffs. The trade imbalance is such that merchant ships probably depart Earth only partially loaded, and then the density of paletised manufactured goods is about sg = 0.3, and so the ships run fast "out", but slow "in".

 

[rgrove0172]

Came across this while browsing, might be of interest in the current discussion.

http://www.aleph.se/Nada/Game/2300AD/Stutterwarp Misconceptions.pdf

Specifically the part "Do all drives use Tantalum?"

 

[Antony]

Looking up some stats - there is a Tantalum mine not too far away from where I live; Australia’s Economic Demonstrated Resources (EDR) are estimated to be 62 kilotonnes (kt) of tantalum in 2011 now with the normal isotope ration for Ta 180 at 0.012% this equates to only 7.44 tons of this isotope being present. Australia also produces about half the worlds current supply though the mines here keep opening and closing as economic conditions change.